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Restoring monotonic power in Wald/LM-type tests

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  • Wu, Jilin

Abstract

Wald/LM-type tests for a shift in mean often exhibit nonmonotonic power, due to incorrect estimation of long-run variance. In this paper, we propose a robust estimator of long-run variance that is built on nonparametric regression residuals and always converges to the true long-run variance under both the null and the alternative hypothesis. Monte Carlo experiments show that the modified tests have monotonic power against the mean with single or multiple breaks in finite samples.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Jilin, 2015. "Restoring monotonic power in Wald/LM-type tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 13-17.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:126:y:2015:i:c:p:13-17
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2014.10.020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Juhl, Ted & Xiao, Zhijie, 2009. "Tests for changing mean with monotonic power," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 14-24, January.
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    3. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    4. Kejriwal, Mohitosh, 2009. "Tests for a mean shift with good size and monotonic power," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 78-82, February.
    5. Bin Chen & Yongmiao Hong, 2012. "Testing for Smooth Structural Changes in Time Series Models via Nonparametric Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(3), pages 1157-1183, May.
    6. Xiao, Zhijie, 2014. "Unit Roots: A Selective Review Of The Contributions Of Peter C. B. Phillips," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(4), pages 775-814, August.
    7. Altissimo, Filippo & Corradi, Valentina, 2003. "Strong rules for detecting the number of breaks in a time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 207-244, December.
    8. Vogelsang, Timothy J., 1997. "Wald-Type Tests for Detecting Breaks in the Trend Function of a Dynamic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(6), pages 818-848, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wu, Jilin, 2016. "A test for changing trends with monotonic power," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 15-19.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-run variance; Nonmonotonic power; Wald/LM-type tests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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