IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolec/v129y2016icp161-171.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting cannabis cultivation on national forests using a rational choice framework

Author

Listed:
  • Koch, Frank H.
  • Prestemon, Jeffrey P.
  • Donovan, Geoffrey H.
  • Hinkley, Everett A.
  • Chase, John M.

Abstract

Government agencies in the United States eradicated 10.3 million cannabis plants in 2010. Most (94%) of these plants were outdoor-grown, and 46% of those were discovered on federal lands, primarily on national forests in California, Oregon, and Washington. We developed models that reveal how drug markets, policies, and environmental conditions affect grow siting decisions. The models were built on a rational choice theoretical structure, and utilized data describing 2322 cannabis grow locations (2004–2012) and 9324 absence locations in the states' national forests. Predictor variables included cannabis market prices, law enforcement density, and socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental variables. We also used the models to construct regional maps of grow site likelihood. Significant predictors included marijuana street price and variables associated with grow site productivity (e.g., elevation and proximity to water), production costs, and risk of discovery. Overall, the pattern of grow site establishment on national forests is consistent with rational choice theory. In particular, growers consider cannabis prices and law enforcement when selecting sites. Ongoing adjustments in state cannabis laws could affect cultivation decisions on national forests. Any changes in cannabis policies can be reflected in our models to allow agencies to redirect interdiction resources and potentially increase discovery success.

Suggested Citation

  • Koch, Frank H. & Prestemon, Jeffrey P. & Donovan, Geoffrey H. & Hinkley, Everett A. & Chase, John M., 2016. "Predicting cannabis cultivation on national forests using a rational choice framework," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 161-171.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:129:y:2016:i:c:p:161-171
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.06.013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092180091530015X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.06.013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Klassen, Mark & Anthony, Brandon P., 2019. "The effects of recreational cannabis legalization on forest management and conservation efforts in U.S. national forests in the Pacific Northwest," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 39-48.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:129:y:2016:i:c:p:161-171. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.