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Target rate factors in short rate models

Author

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  • Harju, Antti J.

Abstract

This study investigates the risk associated with the uncertainties in the central bank monetary policy targets in the context of short interest rate models. A class of models is proposed which admits two channels of interest rate risk. In a prototypical case, the short duration channel handles the uncertainties in the target rates decided in the forthcoming Federal Open Market Committee meetings. The target rate factors can be calibrated on the market values of the Fed funds futures. The long duration channel has traditional risk factors. The episodes following the Covid-19 outbreak and the 2022 rate hikes are used as examples in an empirical study.

Suggested Citation

  • Harju, Antti J., 2024. "Target rate factors in short rate models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:70:y:2024:i:c:s1062940823001560
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2023.102033
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Short rate; Monetary policy; Risk factors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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