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Uncertainty quantification for honest regression trees

Author

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  • Wu, Suofei
  • Hannig, Jan
  • Lee, Thomas C.M.

Abstract

A new method is developed for quantifying the uncertainties of the estimates and predictions produced by honest random forests. This new method is based on the generalized fiducial methodology, and provides a fiducial density function that measures how likely each single honest tree is the true model. With such a density function, estimates and predictions, as well as their confidence/prediction intervals, can be obtained. The promising empirical properties of the proposed method are demonstrated by numerical comparisons with several state-of-the-art methods, and by applications to a few real data sets. Lastly, the proposed method is theoretically backed up by an asymptotic guarantee.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Suofei & Hannig, Jan & Lee, Thomas C.M., 2022. "Uncertainty quantification for honest regression trees," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:167:y:2022:i:c:s0167947321002115
    DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2021.107377
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bradley Efron, 2014. "Estimation and Accuracy After Model Selection," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(507), pages 991-1007, September.
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