SHAPE: A temporal optimization model for residential buildings retrofit to discuss policy objectives

In a context of massive renovation of residential buildings, stakeholders need decision-support models based on knowledge of the current building stock and accurate simulation of energy demand. This paper presents a new strategy for reducing energy consumption in the building sector, a key factor in combating climate change and promoting sustainability. We introduce an approach to (1) plan retrofits at community level, with a building resolution, for different years of an optimization period and (2) assist local authorities in selecting effective measures to improve the environmental performance of their building stock. The focus is on creating trajectory retrofit plans creation for a building stock with three main retrofit options: improving insulation, heating systems and hot water systems. We adapt a complex but linear approach, a type of problem-solving structure known as a multidimensional multiple-choice knapsack problem, which manages to handle a large number of possible retrofit combinations without becoming unwieldy. The planning process is streamlined as a single-objective optimization task that aims to reduce the total cost of retrofits by reducing their net present value.