The energy security risk assessment of inefficient wind and solar resources under carbon neutrality in China

To achieve the national objective of “carbon peak and carbon neutrality,” it is imperative to significantly enhance the utilization of renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power, in the transformation of China's energy infrastructure. However, the intermittent, volatile, and unstable nature of wind and solar power generation systems is often subject to the influence of local weather conditions. Furthermore, recent years have witnessed a growing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, posing considerable constraints on the effective exploitation of wind and solar resources. Consequently, conducting a comprehensive climate risk analysis pertaining to wind and solar resources is of paramount importance in expediting their adoption while mitigating potential energy security risks. In this study, we conducted an extensive examination of inefficient wind and solar resources across China, encompassing the intensity, spatial distribution, and duration of such events. Leveraging high-resolution wind and solar resource datasets spanning from 2000 to 2021, we employed intensity-area-duration analysis to elucidate the spatial and temporal characteristics of these inefficiencies nationwide. Moreover, we conducted a diagnostic assessment of key factors, including scope, duration, and frequency. Additionally, we proposed a comprehensive index system to evaluate the viability of wind and solar resource development. Our findings revealed that climate risks associated with wind and solar resources were predominantly concentrated in autumn and winter. Regions such as Xinjiang, Sichuan, and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River exhibited a higher frequency of inefficient wind and solar events. Notably, the North China Plain and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River were primarily affected by haze and plum rain weather, respectively, leading to these inefficiencies. Conversely, the northwest and northeast regions demonstrated a superior suitability for wind and solar resource development. This study provides valuable scientific insights for guiding the selection of optimal locations for wind and solar power plants, as well as the development of regional renewable energy infrastructure in China.