Energy-related carbon emission reduction pathways in Northwest China towards carbon neutrality goal

The Chinese government has announced ambitious carbon reduction goals to address climate change, however, there has been limited scientific attention to the achievement of deep decarbonization in regions with insufficient economic development. Moreover, the complex impacts of climate change mitigation on energy system, environment and economic development remain unclear in Northwest China. Here we construct a comprehensive evaluation model system to evaluate the effects of different climate mitigation pathways in Qinghai, Ningxia, Gansu and Xinjiang provinces. Results show that the four provinces need to vigorously increase the share of electricity that consumed in final energy to 53.1–60.0% and 52.9–62.0% for 2 °C and 1.5 °C target, respectively, and reduce total energy demand to 11.6–44.4 Mtoe and 8.2–34.1 Mtoe in 2050. Meanwhile, the CO2 emissions for their energy systems will reach peak by 2025 at lower values. Moreover, the synergies of CO2 reduction are most conducive to abating SO2 pollution and also contributing to decreasing PM2.5 concentrations. Additionally, the GDP losses in 2050 fluctuate from 5.0 to 21.7 billion USD in the 2 °C scenario to 11.5–52.7 billion USD in the 1.5 °C scenario. Our study provides practical guidance on achieving carbon reductions in less developed regions of China and lays foundations to promote decarbonization of energy systems in other provinces.