EU-Russia energy decoupling in combination with the updated NDCs impacts on global fossil energy trade and carbon emissions

The updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and EU-Russia energy decoupling have profound impacts on global fossil energy trade and carbon emissions. This study utilizes a dynamic general equilibrium model (GDyn-E) and conducts scenario analysis to illustrate the evolving patterns of global fossil energy trade and carbon emissions in light of the updated NDCs and EU-Russia energy decoupling. A sharp decrease in global fossil fuel consumption will reduce the global volume of fossil energy trade. Major fossil energy trade flows will divert from Europe to Asia, particularly China and India. EU-Russia energy decoupling directly triggers adjustments in the global fossil energy trade such that the EU imports more fossil energy from the Middle East, Norway, and the United States, while Russian fossil energy exports are steered toward Asia. This shift in energy trade patterns is expected to lead to a reduction of approximately 2 Gt CO2 in cumulative carbon emissions worldwide by 2050, which is primarily driven by the intensified efforts of European countries in transitioning to renewable energy sources. The findings of this study offer valuable insights into the interplay between geopolitical conflicts, fossil energy trade dynamics, the updated NDCs, and carbon emission reduction.