Energy in transition

A plentiful, benign energy supply is essential for a high standard of living. In the near future the current temporary oil surplus will be exhausted and we will experience energy shortages and increasing prices. The surplus is not the result of the discovery of significant new oil. Its cause is a ponderous supply system feeding oil to a world economy with reduced demand resulting from successful conservation and recession. The surplus has depressed research and development, reducing our ability to respond to future shortages and rising prices. Decreasing or eliminating the combustion of fossil fuel materials as energy sources will be very beneficial for the long-term fossil fuel materials are very valuable as chemicals feedstocks. Combustion of fossil fuels is the source of most air pollution and acid rain. Carbon dioxide placed irreversibly in the atmosphere may cause dramatic shifts in climate and higher sea levels. New ideas for energy sources and systems are needed. Expanded use of coal and shale oil will increase environmental damage. Fission nuclear energy has promise but has difficulties that nearly paralyze the industry. Fusion languishes from lack of research funds. Renewable energy systems have not shown much promise for large-scale use. New energy systems will require years to develop and implement. The cost will be high and a great deal of energy will be required. The technical community should exert leadership to implement this work now, while low cost energy remains available and the economy is relatively strong.