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Seasonal climate change impacts on evapotranspiration, precipitation deficit and crop yield in Puerto Rico

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  • Harmsen, Eric W.
  • Miller, Norman L.
  • Schlegel, Nicole J.
  • Gonzalez, J.E.

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to estimate precipitation (P), reference evapotranspiration (ETo), precipitation deficit (PD=P-ETo) and relative crop yield reduction (YR) for a generic crop under climate change conditions for three locations in Puerto Rico: Adjuntas, Mayagüez, and Lajas. Reference evapotranspiration was estimated by the Penman-Monteith method. Precipitation and temperature data were statistically downscaled and evaluated using the DOE/NCAR PCM global circulation model projections for the B1 (low), A2 (mid-high) and A1fi (high) emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Relative crop yield reduction was estimated from a water stress factor, which is a function of soil moisture content. Average soil moisture content for the three locations was determined by means of a simple water balance approach. Results from the analysis indicate that the rainy season will become wetter and the dry season will become drier. The 20-year average September precipitation excess (i.e., PD>0) increased for all scenarios and locations from 121 to 321mm between 2000 and 2090. Conversely, the 20-year average February precipitation deficit (i.e., PD

Suggested Citation

  • Harmsen, Eric W. & Miller, Norman L. & Schlegel, Nicole J. & Gonzalez, J.E., 2009. "Seasonal climate change impacts on evapotranspiration, precipitation deficit and crop yield in Puerto Rico," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(7), pages 1085-1095, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:96:y:2009:i:7:p:1085-1095
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    Cited by:

    1. Boateng, G. & Asuah, M. G. & Kyeremeh, E. & Otoo, K. A. & Otoo, E.A, 2021. "Rainfall Distribution over Ghana: The Effect of Distance from the Sea," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 5(10), pages 560-566, October.
    2. Martínez-Romero, A. & Domínguez, A. & Landeras, G., 2019. "Regulated deficit irrigation strategies for different potato cultivars under continental Mediterranean-Atlantic conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 164-176.
    3. Leite, K.N. & Martínez-Romero, A. & Tarjuelo, J.M. & Domínguez, A., 2015. "Distribution of limited irrigation water based on optimized regulated deficit irrigation and typical metheorological year concepts," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 164-176.
    4. Zhang, Xiying & Chen, Suying & Sun, Hongyong & Shao, Liwei & Wang, Yanzhe, 2011. "Changes in evapotranspiration over irrigated winter wheat and maize in North China Plain over three decades," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(6), pages 1097-1104, April.
    5. Bannayan, M. & Eyshi Rezaei, E. & Hoogenboom, G., 2013. "Determining optimum planting dates for rainfed wheat using the precipitation uncertainty model and adjusted crop evapotranspiration," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 56-63.
    6. Haghnazari, Farzad & Karandish, Fatemeh & Darzi-Naftchali, Abdullah & Šimůnek, Jiří, 2020. "Dynamic assessment of the impacts of global warming on nitrate losses from a subsurface-drained rainfed-canola field," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    7. Silva, Vicente de P.R. & Campos, João H.B.C. & Silva, Madson T. & Azevedo, Pedro V., 2010. "Impact of global warming on cowpea bean cultivation in northeastern Brazil," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(11), pages 1760-1768, November.
    8. Shrestha, Nirman & Geerts, Sam & Raes, Dirk & Horemans, Stefaan & Soentjens, Sarah & Maupas, Fabienne & Clouet, Philippe, 2010. "Yield response of sugar beets to water stress under Western European conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 346-350, February.
    9. Fenghua Zhang & Munir Hanjra & Fan Hua & Yunqiao Shu & Yuyi Li, 2014. "Analysis of climate variability in the Manas River Valley, North-Western China (1956–2006)," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(7), pages 1091-1107, October.
    10. Aouissi, Jalel & Benabdallah, Sihem & Lili Chabaâne, Zohra & Cudennec, Christophe, 2016. "Evaluation of potential evapotranspiration assessment methods for hydrological modelling with SWAT—Application in data-scarce rural Tunisia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 39-51.
    11. Nam, Won-Ho & Hong, Eun-Mi & Choi, Jin-Yong, 2015. "Has climate change already affected the spatial distribution and temporal trends of reference evapotranspiration in South Korea?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 129-138.
    12. Kima, Aimé Sévérin & Traore, Seydou & Wang, Yu-Min & Chung, Wen-Guey, 2014. "Multi-genes programing and local scale regression for analyzing rice yield response to climate factors using observed and downscaled data in Sahel," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 149-162.

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