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Where do all the aphids go? A series of thought experiments within the context of area-wide pest management

Author

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  • Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan
  • Grant, William E.
  • Koralewski, Tomasz E.
  • Elliott, Norman C.
  • Brewer, Michael J.
  • Westbrook, John K.

Abstract

Aphids are economically important wind-borne crop pests worldwide. Forecasting invasions poses the challenge of modelling both the terrestrial and aerial portions of their life cycle in temporally-variable, spatially-heterogeneous environments. Within the context of area-wide pest management, modelling migrations is particularly problematic. We present a series of thought experiments, using sugarcane aphids (Melanaphis sacchari) as a test case, in which we ponder the relative importance of accurate forecasting of magnitudes of migrations and initial infestations versus accurate forecasting of timing of initial infestations. Our results indicate the latter is more important. Within the context of area-wide pest management programs, this suggests improvement in forecasting models for windborne pests most likely will come from increased emphasis on the aeroecological portion of the pest life cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan & Grant, William E. & Koralewski, Tomasz E. & Elliott, Norman C. & Brewer, Michael J. & Westbrook, John K., 2020. "Where do all the aphids go? A series of thought experiments within the context of area-wide pest management," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:185:y:2020:i:c:s0308521x20308180
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2020.102957
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    1. Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan & Grant, William E. & Elliott, Norman C. & Brewer, Michael J. & Koralewski, Tomasz E. & Westbrook, John K. & Alves, Tavvs M. & Sword, Gregory A., 2019. "Integrated modelling of the life cycle and aeroecology of wind-borne pests in temporally-variable spatially-heterogeneous environment," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 399(C), pages 23-38.
    2. Koralewski, Tomasz E. & Westbrook, John K. & Grant, William E. & Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan, 2019. "Coupling general physical environmental process models with specific question-driven ecological simulation models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 405(C), pages 102-105.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan & Grant, William E. & Koralewski, Tomasz E. & Brewer, Michael J. & Elliott, Norman C., 2021. "Simulating migration of wind-borne pests: “Deconstructing” representation of the emigration process," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 460(C).

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