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Markov level shifts and the unit-root hypothesis

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  • ZACHARIAS PSARADAKIS

Abstract

This paper examines the properties of tests for the presence of an autoregressive unit root in time series that are subject to multiple level shifts. The latter are assumed to be governed by a time-homogeneous finite Markov chain, thus allowing for an arbitrary number of stochastic breaks. It is demonstrated that standard tests of the unit-root hypothesis against stationary or single-break alternatives experience serious difficulties in the presence of Markov level shifts.

Suggested Citation

  • Zacharias Psaradakis, 2001. "Markov level shifts and the unit-root hypothesis," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(2), pages 1-4.
    • Handle: RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:4:y:2001:i:2:p:4
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    Cited by:

    1. Nikolaou, Kleopatra, 2008. "The behaviour of the real exchange rate: Evidence from regression quantiles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 664-679, May.
    2. Vasco Gabriel & Luis Martins, 2011. "Cointegration tests under multiple regime shifts: An application to the stock price–dividend relationship," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 639-662, December.
    3. Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Herman K, 2003. "Bayes Estimates of Markov Trends in Possibly Cointegrated Series: An Application to U.S. Consumption and Income," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(4), pages 547-563, October.
    4. Marcos José Dal Bianco, 2008. "Argentinean real exchange rate 1900-2006, test purchasing power parity theory," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1 Year 20), pages 33-64, June.
    5. Juvenal Luciana & Taylor Mark P., 2008. "Threshold Adjustment of Deviations from the Law of One Price," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-46, September.
    6. Aksoy Yunus & Leon-Ledesma Miguel A., 2008. "Non-Linearities and Unit Roots in G7 Macroeconomic Variables," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-44, February.
    7. Maki, Daiki, 2009. "Some properties of a unit root test with multiple level shifts in the presence of Markov level shifts," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(5), pages 1754-1760.
    8. Vasco J. Gabriel & Martin Sola & Zacharias Psaradakis, 2002. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple regime shifts," NIPE Working Papers 7/2002, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

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