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Influential observations in cointegrated VAR models: Danish money demand 1973--2003

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  • Heino Bohn Nielsen

Abstract

This paper suggests a set of simple diagnostic tools for assessing the influence of a patch of κ observations in a cointegrated vector autoregressive model. The diagnostics are based on the leave-κ-out principle ( Bruce and Martin, 1989Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 51, 363--424) and the influence is measured by the likelihood displacement ( Cook and Weisberg, 1982Residuals and Influence in Regression. London: Chapman and Hall). An application to Danish money demand 1973--2003 suggests that the observations for real money in 1999 are affected by institutional factors related to the definition of broad money, and that the dynamic adjustment following the international oil-price shock in 1973 is very influential for the long-run parameters. Copyright Royal Economic Society 2007

Suggested Citation

  • Heino Bohn Nielsen, 2008. "Influential observations in cointegrated VAR models: Danish money demand 1973--2003," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(1), pages 39-57, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:11:y:2008:i:1:p:39-57
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    Cited by:

    1. Katarina Juselius & Abdulaziz Reshid & Finn Tarp, 2017. "The Real Exchange Rate, Foreign Aid and Macroeconomic Transmission Mechanisms in Tanzania and Ghana," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(7), pages 1075-1103, July.
    2. Niels Framroze Møller & Paul Sharp, 2008. "Malthus in Cointegration Space: A new look at living standards and population in pre-industrial England," Discussion Papers 08-16, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    3. Katarina Juselius & Niels Framroze Møller & Finn Tarp, 2014. "The Long-Run Impact of Foreign Aid in 36 African Countries: Insights from Multivariate Time Series Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 153-184, April.
    4. Takamitsu Kurita, 2019. "A Recursive Monte Carlo Study of Structural-Break Sensitivity of Adjustment Coefficients in Cointegrated VAR Systems," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(2), pages 251-270, June.
    5. Juselius, Katarina, 2015. "Haavelmo’S Probability Approach And The Cointegrated Var," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(2), pages 213-232, April.
    6. Yonghui Liu & Ruochen Sang & Shuangzhe Liu, 2017. "Diagnostic analysis for a vector autoregressive model under Student-super-′s t-distributions," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 71(2), pages 86-114, May.
    7. Katarina Juselius & Abdulaziz Reshid & Finn Tarp, 2017. "The Real Exchange Rate, Foreign Aid and Macroeconomic Transmission Mechanisms in Tanzania and Ghana," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(7), pages 1075-1103, July.
    8. Katarina Juselius & Niels Framroze Møller & Finn Tarp, 2014. "The Long-Run Impact of Foreign Aid in 36 African Countries: Insights from Multivariate Time Series Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(2), pages 153-184, April.

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