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Estimating option implied risk-neutral densities using spline and hypergeometric functions

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  • Ruijun Bu
  • Kaddour Hadri

Abstract

We examine the ability of two recent methods -- the smoothed implied volatility smile method (SML) and the density functionals based on confluent hypergeometric functions (DFCH) -- for estimating implied risk-neutral densities (RNDs) from European-style options. Two complementary Monte Carlo experiments are conducted and the performance of the two RND estimators is evaluated by the root mean integrated squared error (RMISE) criterion. Results from both experiments show that the DFCH method outperforms the SML method for the overall quality of the estimated RNDs concerning both accuracy and stability. An application of the two methods to the OTC currency options market is also presented. Copyright Royal Economic Society 2007

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal Econometrics Journal.

Volume (Year): 10 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (07)
Pages: 216-244

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Handle: RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:10:y:2007:i:2:p:216-244

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Cited by:
  1. Guillermo Benavides Perales & Israel Felipe Mora Cuevas, 2008. "Parametric vs. non-parametric methods for estimating option implied risk-neutral densities: the case of the exchange rate Mexican peso – US dollar," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 33-52, May.
  2. Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs & Bo Young Chang, 2011. "Forecasting with Option Implied Information," CREATES Research Papers 2011-46, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  3. Jean-Baptiste Monnier, 2013. "Technical report : Risk-neutral density recovery via spectral analysis," Papers 1302.2567, arXiv.org.
  4. Rompolis, Leonidas S., 2010. "Retrieving risk neutral densities from European option prices based on the principle of maximum entropy," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 918-937, December.
  5. Ruijun Bu & Ludovic Giet & Kaddour Hadri & Michel Lubrano, 2009. "Modeling Multivariate Interest Rates using Time-Varying Copulas and Reducible Stochastic Differential Equations," Working Papers halshs-00408014, HAL.

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