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Walking as an Alternative to Indonesia s Oil Consumption Problem

Author

Listed:
  • Heru Wahyudi

    (University of Lampung, Indonesia)

  • Winda Rika Lestasi

    (Institute of Informatics and Business Darmajaya, Indonesia.)

  • Ratna Septiyanti

    (University of Lampung, Indonesia,)

  • Widia Anggi Palupi

    (University of Lampung, Indonesia,)

Abstract

Oil is one of the vital energy sources in a country. Indonesia is one of the countries that was once the world's primary leading producer but is currently threatened with an oil deficit. This condition certainly requires the right strategy and policy so that Indonesia can meet its domestic oil needs. This study aims to forecast Indonesia's oil consumption and production for 2022-2026 using past data from 1980-2021. This study used the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, where several alternative models were produced in forecasting oil consumption, namely ARIMA (2, 1, 2), (2, 1, 16), (15, 1, 2), and (15, 1, 16) and also alternative models of oil production, namely ARIMA (3, 1, 9), (3, 1, 11), (13, 1, 9), and (13, 1, 11). Based on several alternative models, the best models for forecasting oil consumption and oil production are (2, 1, 16) and (3, 1, 9), respectively. From the results of this study, it is reduced that Indonesia's oil consumption is far above oil production. This, if left unchecked, can negatively affect the country's economy. Thus, research can be used as a reference for policy-making related to fulfilling oil consumption and increasing oil production in Indonesia.

Suggested Citation

  • Heru Wahyudi & Winda Rika Lestasi & Ratna Septiyanti & Widia Anggi Palupi, 2023. "Walking as an Alternative to Indonesia s Oil Consumption Problem," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 111-119, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2023-04-13
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Melina Dritsaki & Chaido Dritsaki, 2020. "Forecasting European Union CO2 Emissions Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average-autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Models," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(4), pages 411-423.
    2. Akhmad Akhmad & Amir Amir, 2018. "Study of Fuel Oil Supply and Consumption in Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 13-20.
    3. Chaido Dritsaki & Dimitrios Niklis & Pavlos Stamatiou, 2021. "Oil Consumption Forecasting using ARIMA Models: An Empirical Study for Greece," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 214-224.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARIMA; Consumption; Indonesia; Oil; Production;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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