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Long-term Forecast of the Dependence of the Economy of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug-Ugra (Russia) on the Sectors of the Fuel and Energy Complex

Author

Listed:
  • Vadim Faruarovich Islamutdinov

    (Yugra State University, Khanty-Mansiysk, Russia.)

  • Evgeniy Igorevich Kushnikov

    (Yugra State University, Khanty-Mansiysk, Russia.)

Abstract

The purpose of study is to investigate long-term forecasting of the share of fuel and energy complex sectors in the economy of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug-Ugra. 10 most significant economic industries (sectors) of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug-Ugra were identified, with impact factors determined based on questionnaires and correlation analysis for each industry, as well as regression equations were derived and three forecast scenarios were calculated covering the period until 2028 were elaborated. Regardless of the development scenarios, the oil and gas industry will remain to be the mainstream one in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug-Ugra within the next 10 years. All the rest of the industries will develop basically along with the dynamics of this predominant industry. This indicates the effect of the path dependence of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug-Ugra economy. To boost the pace of the economic sectors development in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug-Ugra, serious institutional changes are needed, which, with few exceptions, cannot be carried out at the regional level.

Suggested Citation

  • Vadim Faruarovich Islamutdinov & Evgeniy Igorevich Kushnikov, 2020. "Long-term Forecast of the Dependence of the Economy of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug-Ugra (Russia) on the Sectors of the Fuel and Energy Complex," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 382-389.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2020-02-44
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    long-term forecast; fuel and energy complex; economic structure; energy; oil.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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