Trend-Cycle Decompositions and Measures of Persistence: Does Time Aggregation Matter?
AbstractThis paper shows that temporal aggregation affects estimates of trend-cycle variances and of persistence of shocks to economic variables. The authors analyze UCARIMA models with orthogonal components and show two results. First, they prove that when the decay rates of the autocovariance functions of the trend and the cycle are almost equal, temporal aggregation causes an increase in the trend-cycle variance ratio. Second, the authors show that temporal aggregation may increase or decrease the size of the persistence measure depending on the dynamic shape of the two components in the basic process. Copyright 1991 by Royal Economic Society.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.
Volume (Year): 101 (1991)
Issue (Month): 405 (March)
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- Lucrezia Reichlin & Marco Lippi, 1991. "Trend-cycle decompositions and measures of persistence: does time aggregation matter?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10163, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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- Aadland, David, 2005.
"Detrending time-aggregated data,"
Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 287-293, December.
- David Aadland, 2002. "Detrending Time-Aggregated Data," Macroeconomics 0301007, EconWPA.
- David Aadland, 2002. "Detrending Time-Aggregated Data," Microeconomics 0211015, EconWPA.
- David Aadland, 2002. "Detrending Time-Aggregated Data," Working Papers 2002-05, Utah State University, Department of Economics.
- Pierse, R. G. & Snell, A. J., 1995. "Temporal aggregation and the power of tests for a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 333-345, February.
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