IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-16-00265.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic conditional correlation and causality relationship among foreign exchange, stock and commodity markets: Evidence from 2014 Russian financial crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Mirzosaid Sultonov

    (Tohoku University of Community Service and Science)

Abstract

The political events of the beginning of 2014 led to a series of economic sanctions against and by Russia. The combination of sanctions and declining oil prices devaluating the Russian national currency (the rouble) had a significant negative affect on the Russian economy. The crisis in Russia is partly transmitted to the countries dependent on remittances from and trade with Russia. This paper highlights the dynamic conditional correlation and causality relationship among the foreign exchange, stock and commodity markets before and during the ongoing Russian financial crisis. The derived results promote a better understanding of the relationship between these markets and have important implications for policy makers and investors in Russia and the countries affected by Russian crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mirzosaid Sultonov, 2016. "Dynamic conditional correlation and causality relationship among foreign exchange, stock and commodity markets: Evidence from 2014 Russian financial crisis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 949-962.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-16-00265
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2016/Volume36/EB-16-V36-I2-P94.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1996. "A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 33-48.
    2. Bernd Hayo & Ali M. Kutan, 2005. "The impact of news, oil prices, and global market developments on Russian financial markets," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 373-393, April.
    3. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    4. Ramaprasad Bhar & Biljana Nikolova, 2010. "Global Oil Prices, Oil Industry And Equity Returns: Russian Experience," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(2), pages 169-186, May.
    5. Samih Antoine Azar, 2015. "The Relation of the US Dollar with Oil Prices, Gold Prices, and the US Stock Market," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(1), pages 159-171, March.
    6. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    7. Shahriar Hasan & Mohammad Mahbobi, 2013. "The Increasing Influence of Oil Prices on the Canadian Stock Market," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 7(3), pages 27-39.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    9. Priyanshi Gupta & Anurag Goyal, 2015. "Impact of oil price fluctuations on Indian economy," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 39(2), pages 141-161, June.
    10. Anatoly Peresetsky, 2014. "What drives the Russian stock market: world market and political shocks," International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1/2), pages 82-95.
    11. Yasunori Yoshizaki & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2013. "On the Influence of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Activity, Inflation, and Exchange Rates," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(2), pages 33-41, April.
    12. Jungho Baek & Ji-Yong Seo, 2015. "A Study on Unobserved Structural Innovations of Oil Price: Evidence from Global Stock, Bond, Foreign Exchange, and Energy Markets," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(01), pages 1-17.
    13. Hong, Yongmiao, 2001. "A test for volatility spillover with application to exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 183-224, July.
    14. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mirzosaid Sultonov, 2017. "The impacts of the oil price fall on the exchange rates of ASEAN-5: Evidence from the 2014 oil price shock," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(1), pages 468-479.
    2. Katarzyna Kuziak & Joanna Górka, 2023. "Dependence Analysis for the Energy Sector Based on Energy ETFs," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-30, January.
    3. Mirzosaid Sultonov, 2020. "The Impacts of International Political and Economic Events on Japanese Financial Markets," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-10, July.
    4. Hanabusa, Kunihiro, 2009. "Causality relationship between the price of oil and economic growth in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1953-1957, May.
    5. Jin Guo & Tetsuji Tanaka, 2020. "Dynamic Transmissions and Volatility Spillovers between Global Price and U.S. Producer Price in Agricultural Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-20, April.
    6. Mirzosaid Sultonov, 2019. "Remittances, bilateral trade and linkage between foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 65-74, January.
    7. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2021. "The impact of Euro through time: Exchange rate dynamics under different regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1375-1408, January.
    8. Shi Chen & Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen & Wolfgang Karl Hardle, 2020. "A first econometric analysis of the CRIX family," Papers 2009.12129, arXiv.org.
    9. Guo, Jin, 2018. "Co-movement of international copper prices, China's economic activity, and stock returns: Structural breaks and volatility dynamics," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 62-77.
    10. Das, Suman & Roy, Saikat Sinha, 2023. "Following the leaders? A study of co-movement and volatility spillover in BRICS currencies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    11. Go Tamakoshi & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2014. "Causality-in-variance and causality-in-mean between the Greek sovereign bond yields and Southern European banking sector equity returns," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(4), pages 627-642, October.
    12. Baumöhl, Eduard & Kočenda, Evžen & Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš, 2018. "Networks of volatility spillovers among stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 1555-1574.
    13. Mirzosaid Sultonov, 2020. "The causality relationship between remittances and the real effective exchange rate: the case of the Kyrgyz Republic," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 167-177, February.
    14. Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2019. "Return spillovers around the globe: A network approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 133-146.
    15. Bezemer, Dirk J & Grydaki, Maria, 2012. "Mortgage Lending and the Great moderation: a multivariate GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 36356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Morema, Kgotso & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2018. "The impact of oil and gold price fluctuations on the South African equity market: volatility spillovers and implications for portfolio management," MPRA Paper 87637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Dimitrios Kartsonakis-Mademlis & Nikolaos Dritsakis, 2022. "Asymmetric volatility transmission in Japanese stock market in the presence of structural breaks," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 73(4), pages 647-677, October.
    18. Zhang, Heng-Guo & Su, Chi-Wei & Song, Yan & Qiu, Shuqi & Xiao, Ran & Su, Fei, 2017. "Calculating Value-at-Risk for high-dimensional time series using a nonlinear random mapping model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 355-367.
    19. Chiang, Thomas C. & Chen, Xiaoyu, 2016. "Stock returns and economic fundamentals in an emerging market: An empirical investigation of domestic and global market forces," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 107-120.
    20. Výrost, Tomáš & Lyócsa, Štefan & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2015. "Granger causality stock market networks: Temporal proximity and preferential attachment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 427(C), pages 262-276.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market; Financial market; Commodity market; Russian financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-16-00265. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.