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A textual Taylor rule: estimating central bank preferences combining topic and scaling methods

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  • Baerg, Nicole
  • Lowe, Will

Abstract

Scholars often use voting data to estimate central bankers’ policy preferences but consensus voting is commonplace. To get around this, we combine topic-based text analysis and scaling methods to generate theoretically motivated comparative measures of central bank preferences on the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) leading up to the financial crisis in a way that does not depend on voting behavior. We apply these measures to a number of applications in the literature. For example, we find that FOMC members that are Federal Reserve Bank Presidents from districts experiencing higher unemployment are also more likely to emphasize unemployment in their speech. We also confirm that committee members on schedule to vote are more likely to express consensus opinion than their off schedule voting counterparts.

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  • Baerg, Nicole & Lowe, Will, 2020. "A textual Taylor rule: estimating central bank preferences combining topic and scaling methods," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 106-122, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:pscirm:v:8:y:2020:i:1:p:106-122_8
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    Cited by:

    1. Ferrara, Federico M. & Masciandaro, Donato & Moschella, Manuela & Romelli, Davide, 2022. "Political voice on monetary policy: Evidence from the parliamentary hearings of the European Central Bank," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Sandra Wankmüller, 2023. "A comparison of approaches for imbalanced classification problems in the context of retrieving relevant documents for an analysis," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 91-163, April.
    3. Ferrara, Federico Maria & Angino, Siria, 2022. "Does clarity make central banks more engaging? Lessons from ECB communications," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Manuela Moschella & Nicola M Diodati, 2020. "Does politics drive conflict in central banks’ committees? Lifting the veil on the European Central Bank consensus," European Union Politics, , vol. 21(2), pages 183-203, June.
    5. Stefano Pagliari & Meredith Wilf, 2021. "Regulatory novelty after financial crises: Evidence from international banking and securities standards, 1975–2016," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(3), pages 933-951, July.
    6. Diaf, Sami, 2022. "Policy preference at central banks: Quantifying monetary policy signals using keyword topic models," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 69, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
    7. Federico M. Ferrara & Donato Masciandaro & Manuela Moschella & Davide Romelli, 2021. "Political Voice on Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Parliamentary Hearings of the European Central Bank," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21159, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

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