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Modeling Duration Dependence

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  • Zorn, Christopher J. W.

Abstract

As applications of duration analysis have burgeoned in political science, scholars have become increasingly aware of the potential substantive importance of duration dependence: the extent to which the conditional hazards of the events of interest are rising or falling over time. Here I discuss the issue of duration dependence, focusing on the distinction between “spurious†dependence due to unobserved heterogeneity and “true†duration dependence due to state dependence in the process of interest. I present a simple extension of a commonly used parametric duration model—the Weibull model—which allows researchers to assess the influence of causal variables on the nature and extent of duration dependence in their data. I then illustrate the application of this “generalized Weibull†model using data on the duration of international alliances.

Suggested Citation

  • Zorn, Christopher J. W., 2000. "Modeling Duration Dependence," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(4), pages 367-380, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:polals:v:8:y:2000:i:04:p:367-380_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Mihailo Radoman & Marcel C. Voia, 2015. "Youth Training Programs and Their Impact on Career and Spell Duration of Professional Soccer Players," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 29(2), pages 163-193, June.
    2. Jeremy Bulow & Paul Klemperer, 1998. "The Tobacco Deal," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998 Micr), pages 323-394.
    3. Benjamin E. Bagozzi, 2016. "On Malaria and the Duration of Civil War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 60(5), pages 813-839, August.
    4. Luis Sagaon TEYSSIER & Nawal ZAAJ, 2015. "Hazard analysis for interval-censored duration of non-employment: school-to-work transition of vocational training graduates in Morocco," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 15(2), pages 161-178.
    5. Jonathan Golub, 2008. "The Study of Decision-Making Speed in the European Union," European Union Politics, , vol. 9(1), pages 167-179, March.
    6. Ferdinand Eibl & Adeel Malik, 2016. "The Politics of Partial Liberalization: Cronyism and Non-Tariff Protection in Mubarak's Egypt," CSAE Working Paper Series 2016-27, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    7. Gianna Giudicati & Massimo Riccaboni & Anna Romiti, 2013. "Experience, socialization and customer retention: Lessons from the dance floor," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 409-422, December.
    8. Aysegul Aydin, 2010. "Where Do States Go? Strategy in Civil War Intervention," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 27(1), pages 47-66, February.
    9. Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier & Dan Reiter & Christopher Zorn, 2003. "Nonproportional Hazards and Event History Analysis in International Relations," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 47(1), pages 33-53, February.
    10. Stine, William F., 2010. "Estimating the Determinants of Property Reassessment Duration: An Empirical Study of Pennsylvania Counties," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 40(2), pages 1-17.
    11. Christopher Zorn, 2007. "Temporal Change and the Process of European Union Decision-Making," European Union Politics, , vol. 8(4), pages 567-576, December.
    12. Mehmet Gurses & Nicolas Rost, 2013. "Sustaining the peace after ethnic civil wars," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(5), pages 469-491, November.
    13. Missinne, Sarah & Bracke, Piet, 2015. "A cross-national comparative study on the influence of individual life course factors on mammography screening," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(6), pages 709-719.
    14. Rui Menezes & Sonia Bentes, 2016. "Hysteresis and Duration Dependence of Financial Crises in the US: Evidence from 1871-2016," Papers 1610.00259, arXiv.org.
    15. Matthew J. Lebo & Will H. Moore, 2003. "Dynamic Foreign Policy Behavior," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 47(1), pages 13-32, February.
    16. Carla Martinez Machain, 2015. "Air Campaign Duration and the Interaction of Air and Ground Forces," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 539-564, May.

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