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Bias in Self-reported Voting and How it Distorts Turnout Models: Disentangling Nonresponse Bias and Overreporting Among Danish Voters

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  • Dahlgaard, Jens Olav
  • Hansen, Jonas Hedegaard
  • Hansen, Kasper M.
  • Bhatti, Yosef

Abstract

Most nonexperimental studies of voter turnout rely on survey data. However, surveys overestimate turnout because of (1) nonresponse bias and (2) overreporting. We investigate this possibility using a rich dataset of Danish voters, which includes validated turnout indicators from administrative data for both respondents and nonrespondents, as well as respondents’ self-reported voting from the Danish National Election Studies. We show that both nonresponse bias and overreporting contribute significantly to overestimations of turnout. Further, we use covariates from the administrative data available for both respondents and nonrespondents to demonstrate that both factors also significantly bias the predictors of turnout. In our case, we find that nonresponse bias and overreporting masks a gender gap of two and a half percentage points in women’s favor as well as a gap of 25 percentage points in ethnic Danes’ favor compared with Danes of immigrant heritage.

Suggested Citation

  • Dahlgaard, Jens Olav & Hansen, Jonas Hedegaard & Hansen, Kasper M. & Bhatti, Yosef, 2019. "Bias in Self-reported Voting and How it Distorts Turnout Models: Disentangling Nonresponse Bias and Overreporting Among Danish Voters," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(4), pages 590-598, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:polals:v:27:y:2019:i:04:p:590-598_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Amilon, Anna & Hansen, Kasper M. & Kjær, Agnete Aslaug & Steffensen, Tinne, 2021. "Estimating disability prevalence and disability-related inequalities: Does the choice of measure matter?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    2. Philip S. Brenner, 2021. "Effects of Nonresponse, Measurement, and Coverage Bias in Survey Estimates of Voting," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(2), pages 939-954, March.
    3. Ersanilli, Evelyn & van der Gaag, Marieke, 2022. "MOBILISE Data report: online surveys Wave 2 & Polish 2021 online survey," SocArXiv twrzq, Center for Open Science.

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