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Causal Complexity and the Study of Politics

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  • Braumoeller, Bear F.

Abstract

Theories that posit complex causation, or multiple causal paths, pervade the study of politics but have yet to find accurate statistical expression. To remedy this situation I derive new econometric procedures, Boolean probit and logit, based on the logic of complexity. The solution provides an answer to a puzzle in the rational deterrence literature: the divergence between theory and case-study findings, on the one hand, and the findings of quantitative studies, on the other, on the issue of the role of capabilities and willingness in the initiation of disputes. It also makes the case that different methodological traditions, rather than settling into “separate but equal†status, can instead inform and enrich one another.

Suggested Citation

  • Braumoeller, Bear F., 2003. "Causal Complexity and the Study of Politics," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 209-233, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:polals:v:11:y:2003:i:03:p:209-233_01
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    Cited by:

    1. Hage, Frank M., 2007. "Constructivism, fuzzy sets and (very) small-N: Revisiting the conditions for communicative action," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 512-521, May.
    2. Harvey Starr, 2005. "Cumulation from Proper Specification: Theory, Logic, Research Design, and “Nice†Laws," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 22(4), pages 353-363, September.
    3. Jonathan Aus, 2009. "Conjunctural causation in comparative case-oriented research," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 173-183, March.
    4. Gary Goertz & James Mahoney, 2005. "Two-Level Theories and Fuzzy-Set Analysis," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 33(4), pages 497-538, May.
    5. Siddharth Vedula & Markus Fitza, 2019. "Regional Recipes: A Configurational Analysis of the Regional Entrepreneurial Ecosystem for U.S. Venture Capital-Backed Startups," Strategy Science, INFORMS, vol. 4(1), pages 4-24, March.
    6. Sophia Lee, 2013. "Fuzzy-set method in comparative social policy: a critical introduction and review of the applications of the fuzzy-set method," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1905-1922, June.
    7. Thomas Hale & David Held & Kevin Young, 2013. "Gridlock: From Self-reinforcing Interdependence to Second-order Cooperation Problems," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 4(3), pages 223-235, September.
    8. Samantha H Cheng & Madeleine C McKinnon & Yuta J Masuda & Ruth Garside & Kelly W Jones & Daniel C Miller & Andrew S Pullin & William J Sutherland & Caitlin Augustin & David A Gill & Supin Wongbusaraku, 2020. "Strengthen causal models for better conservation outcomes for human well-being," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-15, March.
    9. Christopher H. Achen, 2005. "Let's Put Garbage-Can Regressions and Garbage-Can Probits Where They Belong," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 22(4), pages 327-339, September.
    10. Barbara Vis, 2012. "The Comparative Advantages of fsQCA and Regression Analysis for Moderately Large-N Analyses," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 41(1), pages 168-198, February.
    11. Jun Xiang, 2017. "Dyadic Effects, Relevance, and the Empirical Assessment of the Kantian Peace," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 248-271, March.
    12. Rafael Quintana, 2023. "Embracing complexity in social science research," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 15-38, February.
    13. Joshua D. Kertzer, 2017. "Microfoundations in international relations," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(1), pages 81-97, January.
    14. Bear F. Braumoeller, 2004. "Boolean logit and probit in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 4(4), pages 436-441, December.
    15. Eelco van der Maat, 2021. "Simplified complexity: Analytical strategies for conflict event research," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(1), pages 87-108, January.
    16. Mebane Jr., Walter R. & Sekhon, Jasjeet S., 2011. "Genetic Optimization Using Derivatives: The rgenoud Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 42(i11).

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