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What are the Right Models and Policies for a World of Low Inflation?

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  • Minford, Patrick

Abstract

Monetary policy should be guided by macroeconomic models with limited nominal rigidity; ‘New Classical’ or even for some issues just plain Classical (i.e. with no nominal rigidity at all) models are perfectly adequate for understanding various aspects of the economy that have previously led economists to believe in a high degree of nominal rigidity. On UK data these models account for the facts of inflation persistence and exchange rate ‘overshooting’; their impulse responses are in line with the data; and a typical example, the Liverpool Model, is marginally accepted in its entirety by the data since 1979. Such models suggest that no increased macro instability would result from taking the rigours of monetary policy one stage further from inflation targeting and ensuring that the price level itself is returned to its long-run preset target path — so that the value of money over long periods of time would be utterly predictable.

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  • Minford, Patrick, 2006. "What are the Right Models and Policies for a World of Low Inflation?," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 196, pages 92-106, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:nierev:v:196:y:2006:i::p:92-106_10
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    Cited by:

    1. Minford, Patrick & Le, Vo Phuong Mai, 2007. "Optimising Indexation Arrangements under Calvo Contracts and their Implications for Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 6325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Bo Yang, 2008. "The Credibility Problem Revisited: Thirty Years on from Kydland and Prescott," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(4), pages 728-746, September.
    3. Patrick Minford & David Meenagh & Jiang Wang, 2006. "Testing a Simple Structural Model of Endogenous Growth," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0606, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    4. Minford, Patrick & Le, Vo Phuong Mai, 2006. "Calvo Contracts - Optimal Indexation in General Equilibrium," CEPR Discussion Papers 5616, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Brian Snowdon, 2007. "The New Classical Counter-Revolution: False Path or Illuminating Complement?," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 541-562, Fall.

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