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When Banks Grow Too Big for Their National Economies: Tail Risks, Risk Channels, and Government Guarantees

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  • Hagendorff, Jens
  • Keasey, Kevin
  • Vallascas, Francesco

Abstract

Banks are growing ever larger compared to their national economies. We show that increases in relative bank size (measured as a bank’s liabilities divided by national GDP) are linked to banks displaying higher tail risk. This effect is not entirely due to risk channels that disproportionately expose relatively large banks to systematic tail risks, sovereign risks, or banking crises. Instead, we detect a persistent component in the tail risk of relatively large banks that is bank-specific and connected to government guarantees. Furthermore, as banks grow in relative size, tail risks are shifted to debtholders without wealth gains for shareholders.

Suggested Citation

  • Hagendorff, Jens & Keasey, Kevin & Vallascas, Francesco, 2018. "When Banks Grow Too Big for Their National Economies: Tail Risks, Risk Channels, and Government Guarantees," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(5), pages 2041-2066, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:53:y:2018:i:05:p:2041-2066_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Tao Sun, 2022. "Cross‐country evidence on the relationship between global value chain position and the tail risk of insurers," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 25(3), pages 329-365, September.
    2. Jan Libich & Liam Lenten, 2022. "Hero or villain? The financial system in the 21st century," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 3-40, February.
    3. Bremus, Franziska & Ludolph, Melina, 2021. "The nexus between loan portfolio size and volatility: Does bank capital regulation matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Vu Quang Trinh & Aly Salama & Teng Li & Ou Lyu & Savvas Papagiannidis, 2023. "Former CEOs chairing the board: does it matter to corporate social and environmental investments?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1277-1313, November.
    5. Mario Bellia & Sara Maccaferri & Sebastian Schich, 2022. "Limiting too-big-to-fail: market reactions to policy announcements and actions," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 368-389, December.
    6. Veeramoothoo, Sathiavanee & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2022. "Impact of Basel III liquidity regulations on U.S. Bank performance in different conditional profitability spectrums," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    7. Wang, Lei & Li, Shouwei & Wang, Jining & Meng, Yi, 2020. "Real estate bubbles in a bank-real estate loan network model integrating economic cycle and macro-prudential stress testing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 542(C).

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