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Gambling Preferences, Options Markets, and Volatility

Author

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  • Blau, Benjamin M.
  • Bowles, T. Boone
  • Whitby, Ryan J.

Abstract

This study examines whether the gambling behavior of investors affects volume and volatility in financial markets. Focusing on the options market, we find that the ratio of call option volume relative to total option volume is greatest for stocks with return distributions that resemble lotteries. Consistent with the theoretical predictions of Stein (1987), we demonstrate that gambling-motivated trading in the options market influences future spot price volatility. These results not only identify a link between lottery preferences in the stock market and the options market, but they also suggest that lottery preferences can lead to destabilized stock prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Blau, Benjamin M. & Bowles, T. Boone & Whitby, Ryan J., 2016. "Gambling Preferences, Options Markets, and Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 515-540, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:51:y:2016:i:02:p:515-540_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin Blau & Tyler Brough, 2015. "Are put-call ratios a substitute for short sales?," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 51-73, April.
    2. Kwon, Kyung Yoon & Min, Byoung-Kyu & Sun, Chenfei, 2022. "Enhancing the profitability of lottery strategies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 166-184.
    3. Clark, Gordon L. & Fiaschetti, Maurizio & Tufano, Peter & Viehs, Michael, 2018. "Playing with your future: Who gambles in defined-contribution pension plans?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 213-225.
    4. Andreas Oehler & Julian Schneider, 2022. "Gambling with lottery stocks?," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(6), pages 477-503, October.
    5. Zuo, Jingjing & Qiu, Baoyin & Zhu, Guoyiming & Lei, Guangyong, 2023. "Local speculative culture and stock price crash risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Blau, Benjamin M. & Whitby, Ryan J., 2020. "Gambling activity and stock price volatility: A cross-country analysis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    7. Meng, Yun & Pantzalis, Christos, 2018. "Monthly cyclicality in retail Investors’ liquidity and lottery-type stocks at the turn of the month," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 176-191.
    8. Xindan Li & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam & Xuewei Yang & Wei Jiang, 0. "Winners, Losers, and Regulators in a Derivatives Market Bubble," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(1), pages 313-350.
    9. Gong, Pu & Wen, Zhuzhu & Xiong, Xiong & Gong, Cynthia M., 2021. "When do investors gamble in the stock market?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Yun Meng & Christos Pantzalis, 2021. "Lottery-type stocks and corporate strategies at the turn of the month," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1027-1055, April.
    11. Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla & Sumit Saurav & Jayanth R. Varma, 2022. "Lottery and bubble stocks and the cross‐section of option‐implied tail risks," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 231-249, February.
    12. Zhu, Hong-bing & Zhang, Bing & Yang, Li-hua, 2021. "The gambling preference and stock price: Evidence from China's stock market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    13. Andreas Oehler & Julian Schneider, 2023. "Social trading: do signal providers trigger gambling?," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 1269-1331, May.
    14. Byun, Suk-Joon & Kim, Da-Hea, 2016. "Gambling preference and individual equity option returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 155-174.
    15. Bressan, Silvia & Weissensteiner, Alex, 2021. "The financial conglomerate discount: Insights from stock return skewness," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

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