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The Principal Principle

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  • Das, Sanjiv R.

Abstract

I analyze optimal loan modification schemes in a stochastic home price and stochastic interest-rate environment. Lenders maximize loan values by managing the borrower’s option to default on the loan and prepayment option. Given negative equity, controlling for the borrower’s ability to pay, rate reductions and maturity extensions result in a higher probability of redefault by homeowners even after modification of their loans. In contrast, loan write-downs (the Principal Principle), not a favored recipe, are value maximizing for the lender. A shared-appreciation mortgage enhances the ability to pay, mitigates adverse selection, and reduces the present value of expected deadweight foreclosure costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Das, Sanjiv R., 2012. "The Principal Principle," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(6), pages 1215-1246, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:47:y:2012:i:06:p:1215-1246_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Therese C. Scharlemann & Stephen H. Shore, 2015. "The Effect of Negative Equity on Mortgage Default: Evidence from HAMP PRA," Working Papers 15-06, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    2. Fitzpatrick, Trevor & Mues, Christophe, 2016. "An empirical comparison of classification algorithms for mortgage default prediction: evidence from a distressed mortgage market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 427-439.
    3. Goodstein, Ryan & Hanouna, Paul & Ramirez, Carlos D. & Stahel, Christof W., 2017. "Contagion effects in strategic mortgage defaults," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 50-60.
    4. Pfalz Reimar, 2019. "Two Approaches to Examine the Impact of Different Credit Default Indicators on Real Estate Loans," Baltic Journal of Real Estate Economics and Construction Management, Sciendo, vol. 7(1), pages 190-215, January.
    5. Radnai, Márton, 2015. "A lakossági devizahitelek átárazásának bumeránghatása [The boomerang effect of repricing household foreign-currency mortgage loans]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 113-138.

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