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Evidence on the Presence and Causes of Serial Correlation in Market Model Residuals

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  • Schwartz, Robert A.
  • Whitcomb, David K.

Abstract

Studies of returns on common stocks have observed positive market index autocorrelation (see Fisher [10] and Dimson [6]), negative autocorrelation of market model residuals (see Fisher [10] and Fama, Fisher, Jensen, and Roll [9]), and a deterioration in the market model R2 as the returns measurement period is shortened (see Pogue and Solnik [17], Altman, Jacquillat, and Levasseur [1], and Schwartz and Whitcomb [19]). We present further evidence on the strength of these findings and show that they are concurrent events. That is, common factors can explain both positive index and negative residual autocorrelation, and these correlation patterns in turn cause R2 to fall as the differencing interval is shortened.

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  • Schwartz, Robert A. & Whitcomb, David K., 1977. "Evidence on the Presence and Causes of Serial Correlation in Market Model Residuals," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 291-313, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:12:y:1977:i:02:p:291-313_02
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel A. Hawawini, 1980. "The Intertemporal Cross Price Behavior of Common Stocks: Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 3(2), pages 153-167, June.
    2. Dinabandhu Bag & Saurabh Goel, 2023. "Weak Form of Call Auction Prices: Simulation Using Monte Carlo Variants," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 31(1), pages 59-71.
    3. Jahangoshai Rezaee, Mustafa & Jozmaleki, Mehrdad & Valipour, Mahsa, 2018. "Integrating dynamic fuzzy C-means, data envelopment analysis and artificial neural network to online prediction performance of companies in stock exchange," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 489(C), pages 78-93.
    4. Mahla Nikou & Gholamreza Mansourfar & Jamshid Bagherzadeh, 2019. "Stock price prediction using DEEP learning algorithm and its comparison with machine learning algorithms," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 164-174, October.
    5. Koski, Jennifer Lynch, 1998. "Measurement Effects and the Variance of Returns after Stock Splits and Stock Dividends," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 143-162.
    6. Erwin M. Saniga & Thomas H. McInish & Bruce K. Gouldey, 1981. "The Effect Of Differencing Interval Length On Beta," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 4(2), pages 129-135, June.
    7. Stewart L. Brown, 1979. "Earnings Announcements And Auto-Correlation: An Empirical Test," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 2(2), pages 171-183, September.
    8. Thomas T. Cheng, 1986. "Standard setting and security returns: A time series analysis of FAS No. 8 events," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(1), pages 226-241, September.
    9. Pagano, Michael S. & Schwartz, Robert A., 2003. "A closing call's impact on market quality at Euronext Paris," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 439-484, June.

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