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Can Private Forecasters Beat the USDA? Analysis of Relative Accuracy of Crop Acreage and Production Forecasts

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  • Isengildina-Massa, Olga
  • Karali, Berna
  • Irwin, Scott H.

Abstract

This study examines the accuracy of United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop Acreage and Production forecasts for corn, soybeans, and winter wheat relative to their private counterparts over 1970–2019. Our main findings suggest that USDA forecasts often had significantly smaller errors than their private counterparts. The accuracy of both USDA and private forecasts has improved over time, but the accuracy of USDA forecasts has improved more than that of private forecasts, maintaining the USDA’s relative accuracy advantage. The accuracy advantage of Prospective Plantings and Acreage reports highlights the importance of survey-based approaches used for these forecasts.

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  • Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Karali, Berna & Irwin, Scott H., 2020. "Can Private Forecasters Beat the USDA? Analysis of Relative Accuracy of Crop Acreage and Production Forecasts," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 545-561, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:52:y:2020:i:4:p:545-561_3
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    Cited by:

    1. Goyal, Raghav & Adjemian, Michael K., 2021. "The 2019 government shutdown increased uncertainty in major agricultural commodity markets," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    2. Yang, Yao & Karali, Berna, 2022. "The Role of USDA Reports on Extreme Volatility Coexceedances: An Application to the Soybean Complex," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322104, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Farhangdoost, Sara & Hoffman, Linwood A. & Adam, Brian D., 2023. "Forecasting the U.S. season-average farm price of corn: Derivation of an alternative futures-based forecasting model," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).

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