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Impact of Weather and Herd Size Management on Beef Cow Profitability

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  • Tester, Colson A.
  • Popp, Michael P.
  • Kemper, Nathan P.
  • Nalley, Lanier L.
  • West, Grant

Abstract

Producers often contemplate expanding or contracting production to take advantage of cyclical cattle price trends. This study quantifies profitability and risk implications of (1) constant herd size, (2) dollar cost averaging, and (3) price signal-based, anticipatory countercyclical expansion/contraction strategies. Weather simulation on forages with different calving season and land use intensity showed fall calving herds with added hay sales from greater fertilizer use and the countercyclical herd size management strategy to be most profitable regardless of weather or time period analyzed. Income risk was comparable to least fertilizer use. Overall, holding herd size constant led to little regret.

Suggested Citation

  • Tester, Colson A. & Popp, Michael P. & Kemper, Nathan P. & Nalley, Lanier L. & West, Grant, 2019. "Impact of Weather and Herd Size Management on Beef Cow Profitability," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(4), pages 545-567, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:51:y:2019:i:04:p:545-567_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Patalee, M.A. Buddhika & Tonsor, Glynn T., 2021. "Impact of weather on cow-calf industry locations and production in the United States," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    2. Buddhika Patalee & Glynn T. Tonsor, 2021. "Weather effects on U.S. cow‐calf production: A long‐term panel analysis," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 838-857, October.

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