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Explaining Migration Timing: Political Information and Opportunities

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  • Holland, Alisha C.
  • Peters, Margaret E.

Abstract

How do migrants decide when to leave? Conventional wisdom is that violence and economic deprivation force migrants to leave their homes. However, long-standing problems of violence and poverty often cannot explain sudden spikes in migration. We study the timing of migration decisions in the critical case of Syrian and Iraqi migration to Europe using an original survey and embedded experiment, as well as interviews, focus groups, and Internet search data. We find that violence and poverty lead individuals to invest in learning about the migration environment. Political shifts in receiving countries then can unleash migratory flows. The findings underscore the need for further research on what migrants know about law and politics, when policy changes create and end migrant waves, and whether politicians anticipate migratory responses when crafting policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Holland, Alisha C. & Peters, Margaret E., 2020. "Explaining Migration Timing: Political Information and Opportunities," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 560-583, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:intorg:v:74:y:2020:i:3:p:560-583_5
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    Cited by:

    1. Catron, Peter & Loria, Maria Vignau, 2021. "The Economic Attainment of Mexican Refugees during the Age of Mass Migration," SocArXiv qgj3p, Center for Open Science.
    2. Zhou,Yang-Yang & Grossman,Guy & Ge,Shuning, 2022. "Inclusive Refugee-Hosting in Uganda Improves LocalDevelopment and Prevents Public Backlash," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9981, The World Bank.
    3. Tjaden, Jasper Dag & Heidland, Tobias, 2021. "Does welcoming refugees attract more migrants? The myth of the "Merkel effect"," Kiel Working Papers 2194, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Zhou, Yang-Yang & Grossman, Guy & Ge, Shuning, 2023. "Inclusive refugee-hosting can improve local development and prevent public backlash," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    5. Abramitzky, Ran & Boustan, Leah & Catron, Peter & Connor, Dylan & Voigt, Rob, 2021. "Refugees without Assistance: English-Language Attainment and Economic Outcomes in the Early Twentieth Century," SocArXiv 429jp, Center for Open Science.
    6. Merih Angin & Albana Shehaj & Adrian J. Shin, 2021. "Inside job: Migration and distributive politics in the European Union," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 264-288, July.

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