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(When) Do Antipoverty Programs Reduce Violence? India's Rural Employment Guarantee and Maoist Conflict

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  • Dasgupta, Aditya
  • Gawande, Kishore
  • Kapur, Devesh

Abstract

Theory and extensive evidence connect poverty and underdevelopment to civil conflict yet evidence on the impact of development programs on violence is surprisingly mixed. To break this impasse, we exploit a within-country policy experiment to examine the conditions under which antipoverty programs reduce violence. The roll-out of India's National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme caused a large long-run reduction in Maoist conflict violence, as measured with an original data set based on local-language press sources. These pacifying effects were not uniform, however, but overwhelmingly concentrated in districts with sufficient pre-existing local state capacity to implement the program effectively. The results demonstrate the potential for anti-poverty programs to mitigate violent civil conflict by improving livelihoods, but also highlight the crucial role of state capacity in shaping these effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Dasgupta, Aditya & Gawande, Kishore & Kapur, Devesh, 2017. "(When) Do Antipoverty Programs Reduce Violence? India's Rural Employment Guarantee and Maoist Conflict," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(3), pages 605-632, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:intorg:v:71:y:2017:i:03:p:605-632_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Thiemo Fetzer, 2020. "Can Workfare Programs Moderate Conflict? Evidence from India," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(6), pages 3337-3375.
    2. Heidi Kaila & Saurabh Singhal & Divya Tuteja, 2017. "Do fences make good neighbours?: Evidence from an insurgency in India," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-158, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Basco, Sergi & Domènech, Jordi & Maravall, Laura, 2023. "Land reform and rural conflict. Evidence from 1930s Spain," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Roman Krtsch, 2021. "The Tactical Use of Civil Resistance by Rebel Groups: Evidence from India’s Maoist Insurgency," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 65(7-8), pages 1251-1277, August.
    5. Ferguson,Neil T. N. & Wolfe,Rebecca J. & Amine,Laila & Ramadi,Eric & Shahin,Lina, 2022. "Building Stability Between Host and Refugee Communities : Evidence from a TVET Program inJordan and Lebanon," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10101, The World Bank.
    6. Klonner, Stefan & Oldiges, Christian, 2022. "The welfare effects of India’s rural employment guarantee," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    7. Das, Upasak & Maiorano, Diego, 2019. "Post-clientelistic initiatives in a patronage democracy: The distributive politics of India’s MGNREGA," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 239-252.
    8. Ankush Goyal & Rajender Kumar, 2022. "Does Social Welfare Programmes Influence Households Trust in Local Administration and Their Political Participation? Evidence from the MGNREG Scheme in India," Indian Journal of Human Development, , vol. 16(3), pages 602-617, December.
    9. Das, Ritanjan & Dey, Subhasish & Neogi, Ranjita, 2021. "Across the stolen Ponds: The political geography of social welfare in rural eastern India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    10. Kaila, Heidi & Singhal, Saurabh & Tuteja, Divya, 2020. "Development programs, security, and violence reduction: Evidence from an insurgency in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    11. Saibal Ghosh, 2019. "Financial inclusion through a public works programme: Does left‐wing extremism make a difference?," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 37(1), pages 19-45, January.
    12. Pablo Acosta & Emma Monsalve Montiel, 2021. "Public works programs and crime: Evidence for El Salvador," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 1778-1793, August.
    13. Mohamed Abdel Jelil & Kartika Bhatia & Anne Brockmeyer & Quy-Toan Do & CleÌ ment Joubert, 2018. "Unemployment and Violent Extremism: Evidence from Daesh Foreign Recruits," HiCN Working Papers 273, Households in Conflict Network.
    14. Heidi Kaila & Saurabh Singhal & Divya Tuteja, 2017. "Do fences make good neighbours? Evidence from an insurgency in India," WIDER Working Paper Series 158, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Edoardo Chiarotti & Nathalie Monnet, 2019. "Hit them in the Wallet! An Analysis of the Indian Demonetization as a Counter-Insurgency Policy," IHEID Working Papers 03-2019, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    16. Mukherjee, Shivaji, 2018. "Historical legacies of colonial indirect rule: Princely states and Maoist insurgency in central India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 113-129.
    17. Fetzer, Thiemo, 2019. "Can Workfare Programs Moderate Conflict? Evidence from India," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1220, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

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