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Projecting shortages and surpluses of doctors and nurses in the OECD: what looms ahead

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  • Scheffler, Richard M.
  • Arnold, Daniel R.

Abstract

There is little debate that the health workforce is a key component of the health care system. Since the training of doctors and nurses takes several years, and the building of new schools even longer, projections are needed to allow for the development of health workforce policies. Our work develops a projection model for the demand of doctors and nurses by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries in the year 2030. The model is based on a country’s demand for health services, which includes the following factors: per capita income, out-of-pocket health expenditures and the ageing of its population. The supply of doctors and nurses is projected using country-specific autoregressive integrated moving average models. Our work shows how dramatic imbalances in the number of doctors and nurses will be in OECD countries should current trends continue. For each country in the OECD with sufficient data, we report its demand, supply and shortage or surplus of doctors and nurses for 2030. We project a shortage of nearly 400,000 doctors across 32 OECD countries and shortage of nearly 2.5 million nurses across 23 OECD countries in 2030. We discuss the results and suggest policies that address the shortages.

Suggested Citation

  • Scheffler, Richard M. & Arnold, Daniel R., 2019. "Projecting shortages and surpluses of doctors and nurses in the OECD: what looms ahead," Health Economics, Policy and Law, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 274-290, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:hecopl:v:14:y:2019:i:02:p:274-290_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Mustafa Akan, 2019. "Optimal Control Theoretic Approach To Investment In Doctors," Copernican Journal of Finance & Accounting, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 8(4), pages 91-111.
    2. Åhlin, Philip & Almström, Peter & Wänström, Carl, 2022. "When patients get stuck: A systematic literature review on throughput barriers in hospital-wide patient processes," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(2), pages 87-98.
    3. Romain Biard & Marc Deschamps & Mostapha Diss & Alexis Roussel, 2024. "Assessing available care time and nursing shortage in a hospital," Working Papers 2024-03, CRESE.
    4. Mats Nylén‐Eriksen & Ellen Karine Grov & Ann Kristin Bjørnnes, 2020. "Nurses' job involvement and association with continuing current position—A descriptive comparative study," Journal of Clinical Nursing, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(13-14), pages 2699-2709, July.
    5. Leonarda G. M. Bremmers & Leona Hakkaart-van Roijen & Eleonora S. Gräler & Carin A. Uyl-de Groot & Isabelle N. Fabbricotti, 2022. "How Do Shifts in Patients with Mental Health Problems’ Formal and Informal Care Utilization Affect Informal Caregivers?: A COVID-19 Case Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-16, December.
    6. Natalia Cecon & Theresia Krieger & Sandra Salm & Holger Pfaff & Antje Dresen, 2022. "Salutogenesis at Work as a Facilitator for Implementation? An Explorative Study on the Relationship of Job Demands, Job Resources and the Work-Related Sense of Coherence within a Complex Healthcare Pr," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-20, February.
    7. Chevillard, Guillaume & Mousquès, Julien, 2021. "Medically underserved areas: are primary care teams efficient at attracting and retaining general practitioners?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    8. Alexandra Pettersson & Stinne Glasdam, 2020. "Becoming a good nurse – Socialisation of newly employed nurses into the oncological clinic," Journal of Clinical Nursing, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(13-14), pages 2495-2507, July.

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