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Fully Modified Estimation Of Seasonally Cointegrated Processes

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  • Gregoir, Stéphane

Abstract

We extend the framework of the fully modified, ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator introduced by Phillips and Hansen (1990) to the case of seasonally cointegrated processes at a given frequency. First we extend a weak convergence result of sample covariance matrices (Phillips, 1988) to the case of seasonal unit roots. Using a complex number framework, we then show that we can take into account the constraints that exist in a situation of seasonal cointegration as illustrated in Gregoir (1999a) and derive estimates of the cointegration vectors that allow for asymptotic normal inference. This allows us to propose a test whose null hypothesis is the existence of seasonal cointegration. A Monte Carlo exercise investigates the finite sample properties of this test procedure. The paper closes with the analysis of situations in which there exist more than one frequency at which seasonal cointegration can be observed.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregoir, Stéphane, 2010. "Fully Modified Estimation Of Seasonally Cointegrated Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(5), pages 1491-1528, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:26:y:2010:i:05:p:1491-1528_99
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    Cited by:

    1. del Barrio Castro, Tomás & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Robert Taylor, A.M., 2018. "Semi-Parametric Seasonal Unit Root Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(2), pages 447-476, April.
    2. Tomás del Barrio Castro & Gianluca Cubadda & Denise R. Osborn, 2022. "On cointegration for processes integrated at different frequencies," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 412-435, May.
    3. del Barrio Castro, Tomás & Rachinger, Heiko, 2021. "Aggregation of Seasonal Long-Memory Processes," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 95-106.
    4. del Barrio Castro, Tomás & Osborn, Denise R., 2023. "Periodic Integration and Seasonal Unit Roots," MPRA Paper 117935, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2023.
    5. Bauer, Dietmar, 2019. "Periodic and seasonal (co-)integration in the state space framework," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 165-168.

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