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Casualties and Incumbents: Do the Casualties from Interstate Conflicts Affect Incumbent Party Vote Share?

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  • Koch, Michael T.

Abstract

Research suggests that the costs of international conflict (e.g. casualties) alter public opinion, executive approval and policy positions of elected officials. However, do casualties affect voting in terms of aggregate outcomes and individual vote choices? This article examines how casualties from interstate conflicts affect voter behaviour, specifically incumbent vote share. Using the investment model of commitment to model individual vote choice, it is argued that increases in the costs of conflict (i.e., more casualties) can increase the probability that voters will support the incumbent, increasing incumbent vote share. This model is tested with both cross-national aggregate data from twenty-three countries and individual-level British survey data. The results support the argument.

Suggested Citation

  • Koch, Michael T., 2011. "Casualties and Incumbents: Do the Casualties from Interstate Conflicts Affect Incumbent Party Vote Share?," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(4), pages 795-817, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:41:y:2011:i:04:p:795-817_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Levin, 2021. "Peacekeeper Fatalities and Force Commitments to UN Operations," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(3), pages 292-315, May.
    2. Coupe, Tom & Obrizan, Maksym, 2016. "The impact of war on happiness: The case of Ukraine," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(PA), pages 228-242.
    3. Christopher Linebarger & Andrew J. Enterline & Steven R. Liebel, 2020. "Shaken or stirred? Terrorism and third-party state resolve in civil war interventions," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(3), pages 301-322, May.
    4. Jörg Faust & Maria Melody Garcia, 2014. "With or Without Force? European Public Opinion on Democracy Promotion," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 861-878, July.
    5. Anna Getmansky & Chagai M. Weiss, 2023. "Interstate Conflict Can Reduce Support for Incumbents: Evidence from the Israeli Electorate and the Yom Kippur War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 67(2-3), pages 326-348, February.
    6. Matthew Hauenstein, 2020. "The conditional effect of audiences on credibility," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(3), pages 422-436, May.

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