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Policy Direction and Performance Evaluation: Complementary Explanations of the Reagan Elections

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  • Shanks, J. Merrill
  • Miller, Warren E.

Abstract

This article reviews the range of explanations which have been proposed for voting behaviour in the US elections won by Ronald Reagan and develops a comprehensive model for the evolution of electoral choices in both of those contests. Estimates are provided for both the direct and indirect effects of several types of variables or ‘explanatory themes’, and those estimates are used to assess the relative importance of each of those themes in explaining individual-level choices and the aggregate outcomes of both Reagan elections. These procedures suggest that preferences concerning both policy direction and evaluations of national and presidential performance played major roles in the two Reagan elections – both in the individual-level decisions and in producing the Republicans' aggregate victories.

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  • Shanks, J. Merrill & Miller, Warren E., 1990. "Policy Direction and Performance Evaluation: Complementary Explanations of the Reagan Elections," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 143-235, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:20:y:1990:i:02:p:143-235_00
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    Cited by:

    1. J Forrest & R J Johnston & C J Pattie, 1999. "The Effectiveness of Constituency Campaign Spending in Australian State Elections during Times of Electoral Volatility: The New South Wales Case, 1988–95," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 31(6), pages 1119-1128, June.
    2. Morris P. Fiorina, 1991. "Elections and the Economy in the 1980s: Short- and Long-Term Effects," NBER Chapters, in: Politics and Economics in the Eighties, pages 17-40, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Stuart Elaine Macdonald & George Rabinowitz, 1997. "On `Correcting' for Rationalization," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 9(1), pages 49-55, January.

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