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Nuclear Deterrence, Counterforce Strategies, and the Incentive to Strike First

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  • Wagner, R. Harrison

Abstract

I use the theory of games to investigate issues about how to understand the use of nuclear counterforce strategies by the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. The function of the counterforce strategies I model is not to enable a state confidently to launch a nuclear attack but to convince its adversary that the probability that it might do so as a last resort is greater than zero. The models allow one to investigate rational behavior when information is incomplete and there is an incentive to strike first, and therefore provide a way to explore controversies about the effect of counterforce strategies on both the credibility of extended deterrence and the possibility of inadvertent nuclear war. The models suggest, contrary to the claims of a number of writers, that the use of nuclear counterforce strategies is not necessarily inconsistent with rational behavior and provide some insight into the relation between counterforce strategies and brinkmanship models of deterrence.

Suggested Citation

  • Wagner, R. Harrison, 1991. "Nuclear Deterrence, Counterforce Strategies, and the Incentive to Strike First," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(3), pages 727-749, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:85:y:1991:i:03:p:727-749_17
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    Cited by:

    1. R. Harrison Wagner, 1992. "Rationality and Misperception in Deterrence Theory," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 4(2), pages 115-141, April.
    2. Klaus Abbink & Jordi Brandts, 2016. "Political autonomy and independence: Theory and experimental evidence," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 28(3), pages 461-496, July.
    3. Nakao, Keisuke, 2019. "Moving Forward vs. Inflicting Costs in a Random-Walk Model of War," MPRA Paper 96071, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hughes, Michael S. & Lunday, Brian J., 2022. "The Weapon Target Assignment Problem: Rational Inference of Adversary Target Utility Valuations from Observed Solutions," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    5. Robert Rauchhaus, 2009. "Evaluating the Nuclear Peace Hypothesis," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 53(2), pages 258-277, April.
    6. Mike Felgenhauer, 2007. "A sheriff, two bullets and three problems," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 130(3), pages 347-362, March.
    7. Spagat, Michael & Mandler, Michael, 2003. "Foreign Aid Designed to Diminish Terrorist Atrocities can Increase Them," CEPR Discussion Papers 4004, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. James D. Fearon, 1994. "Signaling Versus the Balance of Power and Interests," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(2), pages 236-269, June.
    9. Keisuke Iida, 1993. "When and How Do Domestic Constraints Matter?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(3), pages 403-426, September.
    10. Christopher R. Dittmeier, 2013. "Proliferation, preemption, and intervention in the nuclearization of second-tier states," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 25(4), pages 492-525, October.
    11. Keisuke Nakao, 2022. "Denial and punishment in war," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 166-179, March.
    12. Michael D. McGinnis, 1992. "Deterrence Theory Discussion: I," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 4(4), pages 443-457, October.
    13. Barry O'Neill, 1992. "Deterrence Theory Discussion: II," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 4(4), pages 459-477, October.

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