IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/apsrev/v115y2021i4p1175-1196_6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Reexamining the Effect of Refugees on Civil Conflict: A Global Subnational Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • ZHOU, YANG-YANG
  • SHAVER, ANDREW

Abstract

A large literature suggests that the presence of refugees is associated with greater risk of conflict. We argue that the positive effects of hosting refugees on local conditions have been overlooked. Using global data from 1990 to 2018 on locations of refugee communities and civil conflict at the subnational level, we find no evidence that hosting refugees increases the likelihood of new conflict, prolongs existing conflict, or raises the number of violent events or casualties. Furthermore, we explore conditions where provinces are likely to experience substantively large decreases in conflict risk due to increased development. Analysis examining nighttime lights as a measure of development, coupled with expert interviews, support our claim. To address the possibility of selection bias, we use placebo tests and matching. Our research challenges assertions that refugees are security risks. Instead, we show that in many cases, hosting refugees can encourage local development and even conflict reduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, Yang-Yang & Shaver, Andrew, 2021. "Reexamining the Effect of Refugees on Civil Conflict: A Global Subnational Analysis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1175-1196, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:115:y:2021:i:4:p:1175-1196_6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0003055421000502/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Coniglio, Nicola Daniele & Peragine, Vitorocco & Vurchio, Davide, 2023. "The effects of refugees’ camps on hosting areas: Social conflicts and economic growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Bertinelli,Luisito & Comertpay,Rana & Maystadt,Jean-François, 2022. "Refugees, Diversity and Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10052, The World Bank.
    3. Aksoy,Cevat Giray & Ginn,Thomas Clinton, 2022. "Attitudes and Policies toward Refugees : Evidence from Low- and Middle-Income Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9985, The World Bank.
    4. Zhou, Yang-Yang & Grossman, Guy & Ge, Shuning, 2023. "Inclusive refugee-hosting can improve local development and prevent public backlash," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:115:y:2021:i:4:p:1175-1196_6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/psr .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.