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Predictability and self-similarity in demand maturity of tourist destinations: The case of Tenerife

Author

Listed:
  • Francisco Flores-Muñoz

    (Department of Economics, University of La Laguna)

  • Josué Gutiérrez-Barroso

    (Department of Sociology, University of La Laguna)

  • Alberto Javier Báez-García

    (Department of Political Science, University of La Laguna)

Abstract

This work aims to explore the behavior of a mature island tourist destination, Tenerife, according to the Autoregressive Fractional Differencing Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model. This behavior will be compared to several other destinations, in an increasing geographical scale. Relevant lessons will arise for policy making at the short and long run. Predictability seems to be available but only for a limited horizon. Self similarity across geographic level seems to arise from the results. These findings complement previous conceptualizations like classic TALC (tourism area life cycle) based on long term predictability.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Flores-Muñoz & Josué Gutiérrez-Barroso & Alberto Javier Báez-García, 2019. "Predictability and self-similarity in demand maturity of tourist destinations: The case of Tenerife," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 42(118), pages 59-69, Enero.
    • Handle: RePEc:cud:journl:v:42:y:2019:i:118:p:59-69
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand modeling; Mature tourist destinations; ARFIMA;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • R5 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis
    • Z1 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics
    • Z3 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics

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