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Time series model for predicting the mean death rate of a disease

Author

Listed:
  • D. K. Shangodoyin
  • A. O. Adebile
  • J. F. Ojo
  • J. O. Olaomi

Abstract

This study develops a time series model to estimate the mean death rate of either an emerging disease or re-emerging disease with a bilinear induced model. The estimated death rate converges rapidly to the true parameter value for a given mean death at time t. The derived model could be used in predicting the m-step future death rate value of a given disease. We illustrated the new concept with real life data.

Suggested Citation

  • D. K. Shangodoyin & A. O. Adebile & J. F. Ojo & J. O. Olaomi, 2012. "Time series model for predicting the mean death rate of a disease," Statistics in Transition new series, Główny Urząd Statystyczny (Polska), vol. 13(2), pages 405-418, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:csb:stintr:v:13:y:2012:i:2:p:405-418
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. W. K. Li & Y. V. Hui, 1983. "Estimation Of Random Coefficient Autoregressive Process: An Empirical Bayes Approach," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 89-94, March.
    2. Colin D Mathers & Dejan Loncar, 2006. "Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(11), pages 1-20, November.
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