Conditional Transfers, Labor Supply, and Poverty: Microsimulating Oportunidades
AbstractThis article summarizes a microsimulation exercise for the Mexican human development program Oportunidades and presents a series of simulations of its actual and potential impact upon poverty at the national, urban and rural levels. The microsimulation tool used for this paper makes accounting and behavioral exercises and aims to answer three main questions: What would have happened to poverty if the program had been cancelled, if benefits were doubled, or if urban beneficiaries were doubled? We conclude that Oportunidades can be associated with up to a third of the reduction in rural poverty in Mexico by the year 2002. Doubling benefits and targeting urban beneficiaries would reduce poverty a further 30 percent from its 2002 level. We also find that each percentage point of poverty reduction at the rural level costs around 326 million pesos per month in cash transfers (that is, 1.2 percent of the central government´s total spending in 2002). Further reductions of poverty would have higher or lower average costs depending on the area and on whether they are performed either by extensions in coverage or by enlargement of benefits. Finally, behavioral simulations suggest that labor supply does not seem to be much affected by current cash transfers from Oportunidades.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION in its journal JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA.
Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): ()
Contact details of provider:
microsimulation; oportunidades; reducing poverty; Mexico;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
- I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
- J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Miguel Nino-Zarazua, 2011.
"Mexico’s Progresa-Oportunidades and the emergence of Social Assistance in Latin America,"
Brooks World Poverty Institute Working Paper Series
14211, BWPI, The University of Manchester.
- Niño-Zarazúa, Miguel, 2011. "Mexico’s Progresa-Oportunidades and the emergence of social assistance in Latin America," MPRA Paper 29639, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Armando Barrientos & Juan Miguel Villa, 2013. "Antipoverty transfers and labour force participation effects," Brooks World Poverty Institute Working Paper Series 18513, BWPI, The University of Manchester.
- Margaret Grosh & Carlo del Ninno & Emil Tesliuc & Azedine Ouerghi, 2008. "For Protection and Promotion : The Design and Implementation of Effective Safety Nets," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6582, October.
- Barrientos, Armando, 2012. "Social Transfers and Growth: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Find Out?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 11-20.
- Douglas McKee & Petra E. Todd, 2011. "The longer-term effects of human capital enrichment programs on poverty and inequality : Oportunidades in Mexico," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 38(1 Year 20), pages 67-100, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roberto Bernal).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.