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Las exportaciones de hidrocarburos y el crecimiento económico en Colombia 1960-2016: un análisis según la hipótesis de la enfermedad holandesa

Author

Listed:
  • Johnny Humberto Vargas-Restrepo
  • Juan Pablo Saldarriaga Muñoz

Abstract

La hipótesis de la “enfermedad holandesa” prevé que existe una relación negativa entre las exportaciones de bienes primarios y el sector transable de la economía (principalmente la industria), de ese modo se termina afectando el crecimiento económico. En este trabajo se analiza este fenómeno para el caso de las principales exportaciones Colombia, petróleo y carbón. Por medio de series de tiempo se modeló el efecto de las exportaciones de estos combustibles sobre el tipo de cambio, el sector transable de economía y la tasa de crecimiento económico colombiano durante el periodo 1960-2016, y los resultados muestran que se cumple esa hipótesis. Adicionalmente se testeó si los procesos de apertura causaron también efectos similares a los de la enfermedad holandesa, pero no se encontró evidencia de ello.

Suggested Citation

  • Johnny Humberto Vargas-Restrepo & Juan Pablo Saldarriaga Muñoz, 2020. "Las exportaciones de hidrocarburos y el crecimiento económico en Colombia 1960-2016: un análisis según la hipótesis de la enfermedad holandesa," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 39(70), pages 167-182, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000152:019996
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Goda & Alejandro Torres García, 2015. "Flujos de capital, recursos naturales y enfermedad holandesa: el caso colombiano," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 33(78), pages 197-206, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    crecimiento económico; combustibles; enfermedad holandesa; recursos naturales; industria; tipo de cambio; exportaciones.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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