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Demographic Change Continues Uninterrupted – Despite Higher Immigration: Population Projection for Germany to 2060 Based on the 2011 Census

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  • Eckart Bomsdorf
  • Jörg Winkelhausen

Abstract

In their study Eckart Bomsdorf and Jörg Winkelhausen, University of Cologne, use the results of the 2011 census as a basis for calculating projections of Germany’s population up to 2060. Their calculations show that the future population decline in Germany cannot be avoided, even assuming high levels of immigration. Fertility rates have been stuck at a low level for a longer period of time and since the present generation of potential mothers already belongs to the low birth-rate years, the effect of the decline in the population will merely be reinforced. Only immigration could limit population decline to any significant degree, although it cannot entirely offset it. Even if immigration is high the population will shrink and, above all, age.

Suggested Citation

  • Eckart Bomsdorf & Jörg Winkelhausen, 2014. "Demographic Change Continues Uninterrupted – Despite Higher Immigration: Population Projection for Germany to 2060 Based on the 2011 Census," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(22), pages 15-34, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:67:y:2014:i:22:p:15-34
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2014_22_3.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eckart Bomsdorf, 2010. "Life expectancy in Germany - a look into the future," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(22), pages 25-32, November.
    2. Eckart Bomsdorf & Jörg Winkelhausen, 2012. "Germany's Population Through 2060: the Birth Deficit Increases Dramatically – Model Calculations Based on Population Data from 2011," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(19), pages 26-41, October.
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    1. Eckart Bomsdorf & Jörg Winkelhausen, 2012. "Germany's Population Through 2060: the Birth Deficit Increases Dramatically – Model Calculations Based on Population Data from 2011," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(19), pages 26-41, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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