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Germany's Population Through 2060: the Birth Deficit Increases Dramatically – Model Calculations Based on Population Data from 2011

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  • Eckart Bomsdorf
  • Jörg Winkelhausen

Abstract

Eckart Bomsdorf, University of Cologne, and Jörg Winkelhausen investigate demographic developments in Germany through 2060, building on demographic data collected prior to 31 December 2011. Their results reveal that – even in the case of a long-term decline in the population – the explosive issue is not primarily the decline in the population, but the change in the population’s age structure. The shift of the standard retirement age to 67 under the statutory pension scheme will not resolve demographically-induced problems. In the authors’ opinion, migration is the only way of offsetting the decline in the population and the labour pool, and of limiting the effects of an ageing society.

Suggested Citation

  • Eckart Bomsdorf & Jörg Winkelhausen, 2012. "Germany's Population Through 2060: the Birth Deficit Increases Dramatically – Model Calculations Based on Population Data from 2011," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(19), pages 26-41, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:65:y:2012:i:19:p:26-41
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2012_19_5.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eckart Bomsdorf, 2010. "Life expectancy in Germany - a look into the future," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(22), pages 25-32, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eckart Bomsdorf & Jörg Winkelhausen, 2014. "Demographic Change Continues Uninterrupted – Despite Higher Immigration: Population Projection for Germany to 2060 Based on the 2011 Census," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(22), pages 15-34, November.

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    1. Eckart Bomsdorf & Jörg Winkelhausen, 2014. "Demographic Change Continues Uninterrupted – Despite Higher Immigration: Population Projection for Germany to 2060 Based on the 2011 Census," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(22), pages 15-34, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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