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Prognos Study Unable to Prove a Negative Impact of a Return to the Deutschmark

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  • Ulrich van Suntum

Abstract

Prognos recently published a study that attempts to calculate the benefits of Germany remaining in the euro area. The authors come to the conclusion that these are far greater than the disadvantages, including Germany’s liability for the debts of other euro countries. A central role is played by the export surpluses that have arisen from the real depreciation for Germany at the launch of the euro. Ulrich van Suntum, Center for Applied Economic Research, University of Münster, has taken a critical look at this study, and using a theoretical model of foreign trade has examined the extent to which the real appreciation of a currency is detrimental to the welfare and the labour market of the country involved. His conclusion is that it is not detrimental.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulrich van Suntum, 2013. "Prognos Study Unable to Prove a Negative Impact of a Return to the Deutschmark," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(10), pages 39-49, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:66:y:2013:i:10:p:39-49
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    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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