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AIECE Forecast: World Commodity Prices 2001

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  • Hans-Dieter Karl

Abstract

At the end of March the commodity prices working group of the AIECE (Association d'Instituts Européens de Conjoncture Économique) met in Kiel for their spring conference. The institutes in the group expect real GDP in the OECD countries to grow by 3.3% in 2000 and by 2.6% in 2001 and that the world trade volume will increase by 8% this year and by 7% in 2001. Under these assumptions and on the basis of an exchange rate of about 1 dollar per euro the group expects an average annual increase in commodity prices of 20% this year and a 4% decline for 2001 (both measured in terms of the HWWA Index on a dollar basis). This movement reflects the development of the price of crude oil. The institutes expect that the oil price will show a declining trend with high volatility. On average for this year, a price of about $24 per barrel is forecast, and the price in 2001 should fall between $21 and $22 a barrel. Because of the continuing economic recovery, also the prices for non-energetic raw materials, which had fallen in 1999 by 8%, will be firmer (2000: +7%; 2001: +5%).

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Dieter Karl, 2000. "AIECE Forecast: World Commodity Prices 2001," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 53(14), pages 14-22, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:53:y:2000:i:14:p:14-22
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q00 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - General

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