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Von den Problemen einer Konjunkturprognose im Juli 2002

Author

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  • Wolfgang Gerstenberger

Abstract

Im Zentrum des Hefts steht die Konjunkturprognose. Die Erarbeitung erfolgte unter besonders schwierigen Bedingungen. Die Konjunktursignale waren dissonant und irritierend. Weshalb trotz der Massierung von schlechten Nachrichten an der Prognose eines Aufschwungs im zweiten Halbjahr festgehalten wurde, hängt damit zusammen, dass sich die monetären Rahmenbedingungen für eine Erholung der Binnennachfrage eher noch verbessert haben.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Gerstenberger, 2002. "Von den Problemen einer Konjunkturprognose im Juli 2002," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 9(04), pages .3-5, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:09:y:2002:i:04:p:s.3-5
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    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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