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Wirtschaftsperspektiven 2001/2002 und Entwicklung in Ostdeutschland


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  • Willi Leibfritz
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus


  • Wolfgang Meister



Die deutsche Konjunktur hat sich deutlich abgekuehlt. Das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt duerfte im ersten Halbjahr 2001 nur noch um 1,3% ueber dem Vorjahr gelegen haben. Ursaechlich dafuer war zum einen die Verlangsamung der Weltkonjunktur und zum anderen der Kaufkraftentzug bei den privaten Haushalten aufgrund der hoeheren Preise fuer Energie und Nahrungsmittel. Unsere wahrscheinlichste Prognose ist, dass sich die Konjunktur wieder stabilisiert. Dafuer ist aber notwendig,dass sich die Weltkonjunktur wieder faengt und die privaten Haushalte angesichts sinkender Preissteigerungsraten ihre Kaeufe ausweiten. Aber selbst wenn sich die Konjunktur wieder bessert, wird die Arbeitslosigkeit im Durchschnitt des naechsten Jahres aehnlich hoch sein wie in diesem Jahr.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Dresden berichtet.

Volume (Year): 08 (2001)
Issue (Month): 04 (09)
Pages: 8-32

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:08:y:2001:i:04:p:8-32

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Keywords: Deutschland; Konjunktur; Prognose;

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Cited by:
  1. Martin Hüfner & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2001. "Beeinflusst die Euro-Umstellung die Preisstabilität?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(18), pages 03-10, October.
  2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2001. "Konjunkturprognosen und Prognoserisiko," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(16), pages 17-21, October.


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