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Disequilibria and contagion in financial markets: Evidence from a new test

Author

Listed:
  • Luca De Angelis

    (University of Bologna)

  • Attilio Gardini

    (University of Bologna)

Abstract

This paper provides an analysis of contagion by measuring disequilibria in risk premium dynamics. We propose to test financial contagion using an econometric procedure where we first estimate the preference parameters of the consumption-based asset pricing model (C-CAPM) to measure the equilibrium risk premia in different countries and then we consider the difference between empirical and equilibrium risk premia to test crosscountry disequilibrium episodes due to contagion. Disequilibrium in financial markets is modeled by the multivariate DCC-GARCH model including a deterministic crisis variable. Our approach allows to identify the disequilibria generated by increases in volatility that is not explained by fundamentals but is endogenous to financial markets and to evaluate the existence of contagion effects defined by exogenous shifts in cross-country return correlations during crisis periods. Our results show evidence of contagion from the U.S. to U.K., Japan, France, and Italy during the crisis started in 2007-08.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca De Angelis & Attilio Gardini, 2015. "Disequilibria and contagion in financial markets: Evidence from a new test," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 18, pages 247-266, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:18:y:2015:n:2:p:247-266
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    Cited by:

    1. Valizadeh, Pourya & Karali, Berna & Ferreira, Susana, 2017. "Ripple effects of the 2011 Japan earthquake on international stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 556-576.
    2. Priya Malhotra & Pankaj Sinha, 2024. "Balanced Funds in India Amid COVID-19 Crisis: Spreader of Financial Contagion?," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 13(1), pages 7-24, January.
    3. NiĊ£oi, Mihai & Pochea, Maria Miruna, 2020. "Time-varying dependence in European equity markets: A contagion and investor sentiment driven analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 133-147.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial contagion; risk premium disequilibrium; cross-country return correlations; financial crises; DCC-GARCH model; C-CAPM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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