Comment intégrer le risque dans le calcul économique ?
AbstractIn this paper, I explain why it is sensible to discount future risk free costs and benefits at a rate of 4% in the short run and of 2% in the long run. The riskiness of future cash flows must be taken into account by imputing risk premia rather than by an arbitrary increase in the discount rate. Option values must also be integrated in the analysis. This suggests that the recent reduction of the discount rate proposed by the Commissariat au Plan should not massively increase the number of public investment projects with a positive NPV if risk is correctly integrated in the cost-benefit analysis.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Dalloz in its journal Revue d'économie politique.
Volume (Year): Volume 117 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-d-economie-politique.htm
cost; benefit analysis; discounting; risk premium; public investment;
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Jouvet, Pierre-AndrÃ© & Le Cadre, Elodie & Orset, Caroline, 2012.
"Irreversible investment, uncertainty, and ambiguity: The case of bioenergy sector,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier,
Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 45-53.
- Pierre-AndrÃ© Jouvet & Elodie Le Cadre & Caroline Orset, 2011. "Irreversible investment, uncertainty, and ambiguity: the case of bioenergy sector," Working Papers 1104, Chaire Economie du Climat.
- Pierre-AndrÃ© Jouvet & Elodie Lecadre & Caroline Orset, 2011. "Irreversible investment, uncertainty, and ambiguity: the case of bioenergy sector," Working Papers, INRA, Economie Publique 2011/01, INRA, Economie Publique.
- Thomas Sterner & U. Martin Persson, 2008.
"An Even Sterner Review: Introducing Relative Prices into the Discounting Debate,"
Review of Environmental Economics and Policy,
Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 2(1), pages 61-76, Winter.
- Sterner, Thomas & Persson, U. Martin, 2007. "An Even Sterner Review: Introducing Relative Prices into the Discounting Debate," Discussion Papers, Resources For the Future dp-07-37, Resources For the Future.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.