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Comment intégrer le risque dans le calcul économique ?

Author

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  • Christian Gollier

Abstract

In this paper, I explain why it is sensible to discount future risk free costs and benefits at a rate of 4% in the short run and of 2% in the long run. The riskiness of future cash flows must be taken into account by imputing risk premia rather than by an arbitrary increase in the discount rate. Option values must also be integrated in the analysis. This suggests that the recent reduction of the discount rate proposed by the Commissariat au Plan should not massively increase the number of public investment projects with a positive NPV if risk is correctly integrated in the cost-benefit analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Gollier, 2007. "Comment intégrer le risque dans le calcul économique ?," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 117(2), pages 209-223.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:repdal:redp_172_0209
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Sterner & U. Martin Persson, 2008. "An Even Sterner Review: Introducing Relative Prices into the Discounting Debate," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 2(1), pages 61-76, Winter.
    2. Nicolas PILUSO & Clément RAU, 2016. "Les Investissements De Sécurisation Des Sites Industriels À Risque Et La Concertation Entre Firmes Et Riverains : Une Approche Théorique," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 43, pages 59-76.
    3. Jouvet, Pierre-André & Le Cadre, Elodie & Orset, Caroline, 2012. "Irreversible investment, uncertainty, and ambiguity: The case of bioenergy sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 45-53.
    4. Nicolas Piluso, 2017. "La concertation sur les risques industriels : une modélisation," Working Papers hal-01448420, HAL.
    5. Nicole El Karoui & Mohamed Mrad & Caroline Hillairet, 2014. "Ramsey Rule with Progressive utility and Long Term Affine Yields Curves," Post-Print hal-00974831, HAL.
    6. Veronique Thireau, 2014. "Quel traitement des déchets par l'analyse économique ?," Post-Print hal-01221380, HAL.
    7. Nicolas Piluso, 2023. "Confrontation between shareholders and local residents over safety investments in high-risk industries," Economic Analysis Letters, Anser Press, vol. 2(3), pages 54-66, July.
    8. Michalis Skourtos & Dimitris Damigos & Areti Kontogianni & Christos Tourkolias & Alistair Hunt, 2019. "Embedding Preference Uncertainty for Environmental Amenities in Climate Change Economic Assessments: A “Random” Step Forward," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-22, October.
    9. Axel Pierru and Walid Matar, 2014. "The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Welfare in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: Implications for Public Investment Decision-making," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).

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