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Des équilibres instables

Author

Listed:
  • Christophe Blot
  • Marion Cochard
  • Sabine Le Bayon
  • Mathieu Plane
  • Danielle Schweisguth

Abstract

We analyse the issue of global imbalances and share the view that the US current account deficit result from economic developments inside the United States but also from the increase in saving in Asian countries. The globalization process helped financing deficits by significantly lowering financial costs. Interest rates remain at low levels for several years implying a rise in the debt of firms and households. In a world of growing interdependences, the economy is now more exposed to a sudden correction that may come from exchange rates, bonds, shares or housing markets. It would then lead to a systemic financial crisis and to a world recession. But the adjustment could be easier with Japan and the euro area growing faster. The reduction in China?s large surplus would also help reducing the US current account deficit. JEL codes: E210, E440, F320.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard & Sabine Le Bayon & Mathieu Plane & Danielle Schweisguth, 2007. "Des équilibres instables," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 101(2), pages 165-191.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_101_0165
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    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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